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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
0
3
13
16
0
6
14
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
12
20
39
0
3
13
16
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
15
5
20
0
15
65
80
0
30
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
22
36
71
0
5
24
29
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.455
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.67 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.60 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.182
true Heidke skill score: 0.474 true Heidke skill score: 0.137
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.182
true Kuipers skill score: 0.429 true Kuipers skill score: 0.158
threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.765
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.361
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.310 0.310
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.043 0.129
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.929
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.394
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.250 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.692 0.188
samples: 20 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 36.36 %coverage: 100.00