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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
3
13
16
1
5
13
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
6
12
20
38
0
3
13
16
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
11
0
11
0
16
68
84
5
26
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
11
22
36
69
0
5
24
29
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.842 hitrate: 0.473
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.40 1.23
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.53 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.763 Heidke skill score: 0.209
true Heidke skill score: 0.599 true Heidke skill score: 0.169
Kuipers skill score: 0.763 Kuipers skill score: 0.209
true Kuipers skill score: 0.512 true Kuipers skill score: 0.196
threat score:
1.000 0.400 0.812
threat score:
0.143 0.293 0.361
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.329 0.406
equitable threat score:
0.127 0.053 0.129
probability of detection:
1.000 0.400 1.000
probability of detection:
0.143 0.800 0.394
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.684 0.188
samples: 19 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 34.55 %coverage: 100.00