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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
12
16
0
4
12
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
11
21
39
0
4
12
16
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
20
38
71
0
7
22
29
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.60 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.079
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.256 0.324
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.088
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.718 0.250
samples: 16 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 29.09 %coverage: 100.00