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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
7
12
0
5
7
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
10
26
43
0
5
7
12
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
42
58
100
0
42
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
18
47
78
0
9
13
22
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.309
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.87 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.583
threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.184
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.048 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.212
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.767 0.417
samples: 12 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 21.82 %coverage: 100.00