CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
18
20
0
2
19
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
34
35
0
2
18
20
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
10
86
95
0
10
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
62
64
0
4
33
36
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.857 hitrate: 0.345
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.05
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 11.67 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.786 Heidke skill score: 0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.068 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.786 Kuipers skill score: 0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.053 true Kuipers skill score: -0.321
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.857
threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.033 -0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.026 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.947
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.346
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.971 0.100
samples: 21 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 38.18 %coverage: 100.00