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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
16
17
0
1
16
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
36
38
0
1
16
17
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
94
100
0
6
94
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
65
69
0
2
29
31
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.941 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 12.67 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.912 Heidke skill score: -0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.912 Kuipers skill score: -0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.026
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.941
threat score:
0.000 0.051 0.302
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.002 -0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.947 0.059
samples: 17 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 30.91 %coverage: 100.00