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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
8
9
0
1
10
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
44
46
0
1
8
9
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
18
0
9
73
82
0
9
91
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
80
84
0
2
15
16
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.727 hitrate: 0.182
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 15.33 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.591 Heidke skill score: -0.227
true Heidke skill score: -0.138 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.591 Kuipers skill score: -0.227
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.179
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.727
threat score:
0.000 0.043 0.151
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.065 -0.065
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.011 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.957 0.111
samples: 11 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00