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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
0
9
9
0
1
10
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
43
46
0
0
9
9
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
9
9
18
0
0
82
82
0
9
91
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
78
84
0
0
16
16
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.909 hitrate: 0.218
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 15.33 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.864 Heidke skill score: -0.173
true Heidke skill score: 0.621 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.864 Kuipers skill score: -0.173
true Kuipers skill score: 0.900 true Kuipers skill score: 0.173
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.900
threat score:
0.000 0.065 0.173
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.450 0.450
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.173
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.935 0.000
samples: 11 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00