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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
48
50
0
1
4
5
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
87
91
0
2
7
9
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.109
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 16.67 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.336
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.336
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.256
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.039 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.960 0.200
samples: 5 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00