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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
3
4
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
49
51
0
1
3
4
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
0
20
60
80
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
89
93
0
2
5
7
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.091
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 17.00 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.364
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.364
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.276
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 -0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.058
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.961 0.250
samples: 5 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00