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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
11
14
0
3
11
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
46
48
0
3
11
14
0
5
57
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
79
100
0
21
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
74
77
0
5
18
23
0
8
92
100

hitrate: 0.786 hitrate: 0.210
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.27
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 9.60 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.679 Heidke skill score: -0.185
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.083
Kuipers skill score: 0.679 Kuipers skill score: -0.185
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.407
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.786
threat score:
0.000 0.039 0.183
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.040 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.193
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.214
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.958 0.214
samples: 14 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 22.58 %coverage: 100.00