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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
9
12
0
3
10
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
40
43
0
3
9
12
0
6
49
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
0
23
69
92
0
23
77
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
73
78
0
5
16
22
0
11
89
100

hitrate: 0.692 hitrate: 0.218
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 7.17 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.538 Heidke skill score: -0.173
true Heidke skill score: -0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: 0.538 Kuipers skill score: -0.173
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.316
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.692
threat score:
0.000 0.065 0.173
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.061 -0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 -0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.184
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.930 0.250
samples: 13 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 23.64 %coverage: 100.00