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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
6
54
61
0
1
1
2
1
7
55
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
10
86
97
0
2
2
3
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.111
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 8.71 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.333
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.333
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.107
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.097 0.018
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.018
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.902 0.500
samples: 2 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 3.17 %coverage: 100.00