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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
0
3
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
45
49
0
3
4
7
2
5
49
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
57
100
0
43
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
4
80
88
0
5
7
13
4
9
88
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.107
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 9.80 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.339
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.099
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.339
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.357
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.050 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.082
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.959 0.429
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00