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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
4
45
51
0
1
4
5
2
5
49
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
7
80
91
0
2
7
9
4
9
88
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 10.20 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.074
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.012 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.082
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.922 0.200
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00