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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
3
45
50
0
2
4
6
2
5
49
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
67
100
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
5
80
89
0
4
7
11
4
9
88
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 10.00 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.312
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.313
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.215
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.058 0.078
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.031 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.082
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.940 0.333
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00