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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
11
45
60
0
1
2
3
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
67
100
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
17
71
95
0
2
3
5
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.206
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 5.00 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.190
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.190
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.026
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.180 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.817 0.333
samples: 3 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00