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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
7
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
9
39
49
3
2
2
7
4
11
41
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
29
29
100
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
16
70
88
5
4
4
13
7
20
73
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.45 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.091
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.159
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 -0.076
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.049
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.816 0.714
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00