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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
1
5
2
2
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
9
40
51
2
2
1
5
4
11
41
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
33
33
17
83
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
16
71
91
4
4
2
9
7
20
73
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.179
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.64 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.232
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.087
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.232
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.156
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.170 0.022
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 -0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 -0.064
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.824 0.800
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00