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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
6
2
2
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
9
39
50
2
2
2
6
4
11
41
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
16
70
89
4
4
4
11
7
20
73
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.55 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.137
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.173 0.044
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 -0.059
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.049
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.820 0.667
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00