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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
5
5
2
1
1
4
2
1
8
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
1
3
45
49
2
1
1
4
3
4
48
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
18
18
0
0
45
45
18
9
9
36
18
9
73
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
2
5
82
89
4
2
2
7
5
7
87
100

hitrate: 0.091 hitrate: 0.073
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 5.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 12.25 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.364 Heidke skill score: -0.391
true Heidke skill score: -0.375 true Heidke skill score: -0.066
Kuipers skill score: -0.364 Kuipers skill score: -0.391
true Kuipers skill score: -0.577 true Kuipers skill score: -0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.060 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.100 -0.082 -0.236
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.012 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.125
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.021
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.939 0.750
samples: 11 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00