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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
4
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
48
51
3
1
0
4
3
4
48
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
0
100
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
87
93
5
2
0
7
5
7
87
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.055
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 12.75 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.418
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.088
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.418
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.332
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.058 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 -0.072
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.941 1.000
samples: 4 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 7.27 %coverage: 100.00