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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5
3
1
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
47
50
3
1
1
5
3
4
48
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
20
20
100
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
85
91
5
2
2
9
5
7
87
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.073
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 12.50 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.391
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.391
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.316
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.059 0.019
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 -0.071
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.021
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.940 0.800
samples: 5 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00