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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
15
18
0
0
4
4
1
3
15
19
1
6
34
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
15
18
0
1
24
25
1
3
15
19
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
37
44
0
0
10
10
2
7
37
46
2
15
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
24
29
0
2
39
40
2
5
24
31
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.366 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
18.00 0.67 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
18.00 3.57 0.35
Heidke skill score: 0.049 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: -0.074 true Heidke skill score: -0.086
Kuipers skill score: 0.049 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: -0.150 true Kuipers skill score: -0.259
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.395
threat score:
0.000 0.032 0.259
equitable threat score:
-0.024 -0.062 -0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.065 -0.037
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.441
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.278
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.960 0.211
samples: 41 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 66.13 %coverage: 100.00