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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
12
0
0
6
6
1
4
17
22
1
6
33
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
12
0
1
27
28
1
4
17
22
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
25
30
0
0
15
15
3
10
43
55
3
15
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
16
19
0
2
44
45
2
6
27
35
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.425 hitrate: 0.290
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
12.00 1.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
12.00 4.00 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.137 Heidke skill score: -0.065
true Heidke skill score: -0.114 true Heidke skill score: -0.114
Kuipers skill score: 0.137 Kuipers skill score: -0.065
true Kuipers skill score: -0.198 true Kuipers skill score: -0.319
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.447
threat score:
0.000 0.029 0.288
equitable threat score:
-0.024 -0.081 -0.058
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.070 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.515
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.315
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.964 0.227
samples: 40 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 64.52 %coverage: 100.00