CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
17
19
0
1
9
10
1
3
5
9
1
6
31
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
17
19
0
2
32
34
1
3
5
9
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
45
50
0
3
24
26
3
8
13
24
3
16
82
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
27
31
0
3
52
55
2
5
8
15
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.113
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
19.00 1.67 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
19.00 4.86 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.331
true Heidke skill score: -0.120 true Heidke skill score: -0.100
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.331
true Kuipers skill score: -0.291 true Kuipers skill score: -0.352
threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.051 0.086
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.043 -0.085
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.052 -0.057
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.161
probability of detection:
0.000 0.286 0.093
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.900 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.941 0.444
samples: 38 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 61.29 %coverage: 100.00