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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
0
0
7
7
1
4
11
16
1
6
27
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
0
1
34
35
1
4
11
16
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
26
32
0
0
21
21
3
12
32
47
3
18
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
15
18
0
2
55
56
2
6
18
26
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.324 hitrate: 0.194
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.00 1.17 0.59
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.00 5.00 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.015 Heidke skill score: -0.210
true Heidke skill score: -0.165 true Heidke skill score: -0.138
Kuipers skill score: -0.015 Kuipers skill score: -0.210
true Kuipers skill score: -0.285 true Kuipers skill score: -0.428
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.344
threat score:
0.000 0.024 0.186
equitable threat score:
-0.028 -0.105 -0.088
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.080 -0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.407
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.204
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.971 0.312
samples: 34 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 54.84 %coverage: 100.00