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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
21
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
2
8
25
35
0
0
0
0
2
8
45
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
91
91
0
5
5
9
0
0
0
0
0
5
95
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
36
36
4
15
45
64
0
0
0
0
4
15
82
100

hitrate: 0.045 hitrate: 0.145
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
10.00 4.38 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.432 Heidke skill score: -0.282
true Heidke skill score: 0.041 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.432 Kuipers skill score: -0.282
true Kuipers skill score: 0.476 true Kuipers skill score: 0.129
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.229 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.476 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.097 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.771 0.000
samples: 22 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00