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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
18
19
0
0
2
2
2
3
2
7
2
4
22
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
18
19
0
4
25
29
2
3
2
7
2
8
45
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
64
68
0
0
7
7
7
11
7
25
7
14
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
33
35
0
7
45
53
4
5
4
13
4
15
82
100

hitrate: 0.071 hitrate: 0.109
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.50 0.50 0.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.50 3.62 0.16
Heidke skill score: -0.393 Heidke skill score: -0.336
true Heidke skill score: -0.247 true Heidke skill score: -0.105
Kuipers skill score: -0.393 Kuipers skill score: -0.336
true Kuipers skill score: -0.514 true Kuipers skill score: -0.274
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.074
threat score:
0.000 0.121 0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.069 -0.050 -0.163
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.008 -0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.044
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.862 0.714
samples: 28 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 50.91 %coverage: 100.00