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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
10
11
0
0
1
1
2
3
3
8
2
4
14
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
10
11
0
4
32
36
2
3
3
8
2
8
45
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
50
55
0
0
5
5
10
15
15
40
10
20
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
18
20
0
7
58
65
4
5
5
15
4
15
82
100

hitrate: 0.150 hitrate: 0.127
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.50 0.25 0.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.50 4.50 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.275 Heidke skill score: -0.309
true Heidke skill score: -0.298 true Heidke skill score: -0.121
Kuipers skill score: -0.275 Kuipers skill score: -0.309
true Kuipers skill score: -0.424 true Kuipers skill score: -0.306
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.158
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.060
equitable threat score:
-0.092 -0.042 -0.194
equitable threat score:
-0.032 -0.036 -0.082
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.214
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.889 0.625
samples: 20 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 36.36 %coverage: 100.00