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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
9
0
0
0
0
2
2
10
14
3
5
15
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
9
1
7
32
40
2
2
10
14
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
22
39
0
0
0
0
9
9
43
61
13
22
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
8
14
2
11
51
63
3
3
16
22
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.478 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 0.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.25 3.33 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.217 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.055 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.217 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.059 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.526
threat score:
0.083 0.156 0.196
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.000 0.088
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.017 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.250 0.583 0.213
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.825 0.286
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00