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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
0
0
0
0
2
3
10
15
3
5
15
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
1
7
32
40
2
3
10
15
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
22
35
0
0
0
0
9
13
43
65
13
22
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
8
13
2
11
51
63
3
5
16
24
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.478 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 3.33 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.217 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.014 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.217 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.015 true Kuipers skill score: -0.052
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.091 0.156 0.192
equitable threat score:
-0.005 0.000 0.021
equitable threat score:
0.047 -0.017 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.250 0.583 0.213
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.825 0.333
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00