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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
1
0
2
3
2
0
0
2
3
1
8
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
2
11
41
54
2
0
0
2
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
50
58
8
0
17
25
17
0
0
17
25
8
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
11
3
17
65
86
3
0
0
3
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 3.00 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 4.50 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.238
true Heidke skill score: -0.385 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.238
true Kuipers skill score: -0.571 true Kuipers skill score: -0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.212 -0.067 -0.154
equitable threat score:
-0.042 0.016 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.796 1.000
samples: 12 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00