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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
9
10
1
0
3
4
2
0
1
3
3
1
13
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
9
10
2
11
37
50
2
0
1
3
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
53
59
6
0
18
24
12
0
6
18
18
6
76
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
14
16
3
17
59
79
3
0
2
5
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.059 hitrate: 0.190
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.33 4.00 0.23
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 4.17 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.412 Heidke skill score: -0.214
true Heidke skill score: -0.259 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.412 Kuipers skill score: -0.214
true Kuipers skill score: -0.509 true Kuipers skill score: -0.016
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.157 -0.049 -0.102
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.036 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.077
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.021
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.780 0.667
samples: 17 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 26.98 %coverage: 100.00