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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
3
0
1
4
3
0
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
12
43
56
3
0
1
4
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
43
43
0
0
0
0
43
0
14
57
43
0
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
2
19
68
89
5
0
2
6
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.206
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 4.67 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.190
true Heidke skill score: -0.750 true Heidke skill score: -0.017
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.190
true Kuipers skill score: -0.750 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.214 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.273 0.000 -0.273
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.029 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.021
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.786 0.750
samples: 7 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 11.11 %coverage: 100.00