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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
7
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
7
7
35
49
0
1
1
2
7
8
41
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
63
63
0
0
13
13
0
13
13
25
0
13
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
13
13
63
88
0
2
2
4
13
14
73
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 6.12 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: -0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.140 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 -0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.055 0.000 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.857 0.500
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00