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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
1
0
0
1
4
0
3
7
5
0
14
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
3
8
27
38
4
0
3
7
7
8
41
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
58
58
5
0
0
5
21
0
16
37
26
0
74
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
5
14
48
68
7
0
5
13
13
14
73
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.20 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.57 4.75 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: -0.462 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: -0.686 true Kuipers skill score: -0.039
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.211 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.221 0.000 -0.168
equitable threat score:
-0.083 0.079 -0.053
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.214
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.073
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.789 0.571
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00