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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
1
7
0
0
0
0
3
6
3
12
8
7
4
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
1
7
9
22
14
45
3
6
3
12
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
5
5
37
0
0
0
0
16
32
16
63
42
37
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
2
11
14
34
22
70
5
9
5
19
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.469
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 1.55 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.203
true Heidke skill score: 0.187 true Heidke skill score: 0.114
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.203
true Kuipers skill score: 0.207 true Kuipers skill score: 0.106
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.231
threat score:
0.263 0.423 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.291 0.000 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.183 0.051 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.625 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.294 0.759 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.511 0.750
samples: 19 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 29.69 %coverage: 100.00