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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
4
10
0
0
0
0
2
5
2
9
7
6
6
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
4
10
10
23
12
45
2
5
2
9
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
5
21
53
0
0
0
0
11
26
11
47
37
32
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
6
16
16
36
19
70
3
8
3
14
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.469
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.59 1.55 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.203
true Heidke skill score: 0.038 true Heidke skill score: 0.115
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.203
true Kuipers skill score: 0.037 true Kuipers skill score: 0.107
threat score:
0.417 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.227 0.451 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.000 -0.083
equitable threat score:
0.121 0.085 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.714 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.294 0.793 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.489 0.778
samples: 19 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 29.69 %coverage: 100.00