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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
3
8
1
1
0
2
4
6
3
13
9
8
6
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
3
8
9
22
12
43
4
6
3
13
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
4
13
35
4
4
0
9
17
26
13
57
39
35
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
5
13
14
34
19
67
6
9
5
20
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.348 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 0.25 2.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 1.48 0.72
Heidke skill score: 0.022 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: 0.050 true Heidke skill score: 0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.022 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: 0.052 true Kuipers skill score: 0.090
threat score:
0.308 0.111 0.188
threat score:
0.190 0.440 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.088 0.037 -0.031
equitable threat score:
0.099 0.082 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.444 0.125 0.500
probability of detection:
0.235 0.759 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.488 0.769
samples: 23 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 35.94 %coverage: 100.00