CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
3
9
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
7
7
4
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
3
9
10
25
13
48
2
3
2
7
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
6
19
56
0
0
0
0
13
19
13
44
44
25
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
5
14
16
39
20
75
3
5
3
11
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 1.66 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.089 true Heidke skill score: 0.155
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.084 true Kuipers skill score: 0.143
threat score:
0.455 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.238 0.481 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.150 0.000 -0.024
equitable threat score:
0.140 0.107 0.001
probability of detection:
0.714 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.294 0.862 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.479 0.714
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00