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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
4
8
1
0
0
1
4
3
3
10
8
4
7
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
4
8
10
25
11
46
4
3
3
10
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
5
21
42
5
0
0
5
21
16
16
53
42
21
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
6
13
16
39
17
72
6
5
5
16
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 1.59 0.56
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: -0.108 true Heidke skill score: 0.137
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: -0.103 true Kuipers skill score: 0.126
threat score:
0.231 0.000 0.214
threat score:
0.136 0.500 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.044 -0.066
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.143 0.008
probability of detection:
0.375 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.176 0.862 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 1.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.457 0.700
samples: 19 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 29.69 %coverage: 100.00