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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
4
2
8
3
4
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
10
26
56
2
4
2
8
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
0
0
11
22
44
22
89
33
44
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
16
41
88
3
6
3
13
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.188
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.25 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.00 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.219
true Heidke skill score: -0.033 true Heidke skill score: -0.078
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.219
true Kuipers skill score: -0.038 true Kuipers skill score: -0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.098 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.047 -0.049
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.821 0.750
samples: 9 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 14.06 %coverage: 100.00