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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
4
2
7
2
4
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
20
10
26
56
1
4
2
7
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
13
50
25
88
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
31
16
41
88
2
6
3
11
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.203
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.00 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.195
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.195
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.045 0.167 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.030 -0.047 -0.035
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.714 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.821 0.714
samples: 8 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00