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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
20
14
26
60
1
0
2
3
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
0
0
0
0
25
0
50
75
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
31
22
41
94
2
0
3
5
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 -- 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.29 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: 0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.045 0.233 0.069
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.030 0.019 0.025
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.045 1.000 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.767 0.333
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00