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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
4
0
5
2
4
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
20
10
28
58
1
4
0
5
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
0
17
0
0
0
0
17
67
0
83
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
31
16
44
91
2
6
0
8
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.172
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.14 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.242
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: -0.086
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.242
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.103
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.161 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.030 -0.054 -0.071
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.714 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.828 1.000
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00