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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
4
0
5
2
4
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
10
28
59
1
4
0
5
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
17
17
67
0
83
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
16
44
92
2
6
0
8
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.156
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.25 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.21 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.266
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.104
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.266
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.124
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.159 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.154 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.058 -0.071
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.831 1.000
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00