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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
4
2
3
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
20
11
28
59
1
3
0
4
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
20
60
0
80
40
60
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
31
17
44
92
2
5
0
6
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.188
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.21 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.219
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.219
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.073
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.177 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.030 -0.039 -0.058
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.786 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.814 1.000
samples: 5 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 7.81 %coverage: 100.00