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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
4
1
3
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
11
28
60
1
3
0
4
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
0
100
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
17
44
94
2
5
0
6
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.172
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.29 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.242
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.079
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.242
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.094
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.175 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.043 -0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.817 1.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00