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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
6
6
2
14
7
6
2
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
13
22
50
6
6
2
14
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
7
40
40
13
93
47
40
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
20
34
78
9
9
3
22
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.133 hitrate: 0.234
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.17 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.63 0.58
Heidke skill score: -0.300 Heidke skill score: -0.148
true Heidke skill score: -0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.116
Kuipers skill score: -0.300 Kuipers skill score: -0.148
true Kuipers skill score: -0.029 true Kuipers skill score: -0.120
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.232 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.061 0.011
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.045 -0.106
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.740 0.857
samples: 15 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 23.44 %coverage: 100.00